At 0:18 today, Dr. Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of infection, Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, Shanghai, published a lengthy article in his personal microblog, summarizing the experience of fighting against Xinguan for more than a year and making the latest judgment on the future development of the epidemic situation.
Beijing Daily (ID: Beijing)_ (daily) tease out 10 key points to understand together!
At present, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has come to an end and returned to our daily life, but after all, we can’t go back to the days before the epidemic. Shanghai is the airport with the largest number of international landing flights, and the task of treating imported cases is still burdensome. When the whole country’s people have had a peaceful Spring Festival, many medical workers are still fighting in the front line, unable to reunite with their children and parents.
the unity of the people is the foundation of overcoming the once-in-a-hundred-year plague. After the battle of Wuhan, after the outbreaks in Beijing, Xinfadi, Dalian, Xinjiang, Hebei, Northeast China, and even Shanghai and Tianjin, China has formed a systematic implementation plan, regardless of the size, and thus free us from the fear of disease, which is the guarantee of a peaceful Spring Festival.
Plague is a game between humans and nature. The key to success lies in the government’s governance ability and the interaction between the government and the people. The epidemic shows that strong government capacity and the people’s cooperation can reduce human death to the lowest point and achieve the ideal outcome that man will conquer nature.
The rapid development of human beings will inevitably bring about the spread of diseases on a large scale. Still, the development of science and technology has also offset the harm of diseases. Human beings and nature are always in imbalance and rebalancing. The development of diagnostic technology, including the ability of large-scale screening of an urban population within a week and full detection of cases, is the technical basis of our non-drug intervention (full detection of infected persons and isolation of infection sources).
Although no specific targeted antiviral drugs have been obtained so far, and human beings still have no cocktail therapy similar to that for AIDS, relying on the existing organ support technology, human beings can support critically ill patients to rely on their own immune recovery and finally overcome the disease.
It is believed that human beings will eventually obtain targeted antiviral drugs, which should be successful within five years. Targeted drugs can reduce the mortality rate, supplement the insufficiency of global vaccination, and give the world new opportunities.
Covid-19 has become a resident virus in the world. There is no other way to open it except vaccine unless willing to pay a lot of death.
Assuming that the protection of vaccine is permanent, if the effective rate is 100%, the vaccination rate needed to establish group immunity is 60% ~ 72%; if the effective rate of vaccine is less than 80%, then all people need to be vaccinated to establish group immunity. When the priority is given to adults over 60 years old, the mortality can be minimized.
According to the basic principle of evolution, the virus may mutate after infecting the population. Natural selection will favor the transmission of mutant strains with high preference and strong infectivity in the population. The mutation will continue, but whether in China or the world, the vaccine production line is enough to cope with these mutations at present.
Global reopening depends on the accessibility and fairness of vaccines and the speed of promotion. With the advent of the Chinese new year, from the interaction between the leaders of major countries (China and the United States) and the greetings on New Year’s Eve, the global consensus to support who in promoting global vaccination may take a turn from the arrival of the Chinese New Year.
For China with almost no local cases, early warning, rapid response, precise prevention and control, and dynamic clearing can be achieved by strengthening the public health system’s construction until the completion of universal vaccination coverage.
Whether willing or not, global collaboration is a standard option for all countries in the world. China can not win this victory alone, just because the world is a community. Europe and the United States can not complete the vaccination independently. Unless China and the United States cooperate and meet the vaccination globally, it will be difficult to achieve the world’s opening up.
source: Beijing daily