Author: Li Aohua
The Covid19 vaccine sales record has been refreshed again.
After the market hours on Aug. 31, Hong Kong stock China Biopharma (01177) disclosed its 2021 interim results report. According to the report, China Biopharma recorded revenue of approximately 14.354 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 13.5% year-on-year; profit attributable to holders of the parent company was approximately 8.48 billion yuan, an increase of 583.6% year-on-year, of which profit attributable to associates and joint ventures reached 7.585 billion yuan, after deducting relevant taxes and fees, associates and joint ventures contributed approximately 6.906 billion yuan to China Biopharma This figure compares to a loss for the same period last year.
The growth in earnings of China Biopharma’s associates and joint ventures was mainly due to the Kexing Zhongwei Covid19 vaccine sales. In December 2020, China Biopharma contributed US$515 million to Kexing Zhongwei, holding a 15.03% interest in it. On this basis, Kexing Zhongwei’s earnings in the first half of the year were close to 50 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 30-40 billion yuan.
So far, Kexing Zhongwei has been approved for emergency use or conditional listing in more than 50 countries and has entered the World Health Organization’s emergency use list. According to the disclosure of China Biopharmaceuticals, Kexing Vaccine has now completed more than 1 billion doses of vaccination worldwide, and Kexing Zhongwei has signed cooperation agreements with nearly 20 countries outside of China for a combined total of approximately 900 million doses of vaccine during this year.
In April this year, the third phase of Kexing Vaccine’s original liquid workshop has been completed and put into operation in China, with an expected annual production capacity of over 2 billion doses. In addition to this, Kexing Vaccine has production workshops in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Turkey, Egypt, and other countries.
Domestic vaccine sales on top?
There is no doubt that the Covid19 Vaccine is the best-selling vaccine product in the history of the world.
According to the previous projection of Guotai Junan Securities, the net profit of a single unit of inactivated vaccine is about 50 yuan, and the net profit margin is about 40%-50%. Based on this projection, Kexin vaccine sales revenue in the first half of the year was 100 billion yuan – 125 billion yuan, a figure that even surpassed Pfizer vaccine, making it the highest-selling Covid19 vaccine in the world.
According to Pfizer’s previously announced second-quarter earnings report, Pfizer, BioNTech jointly developed mRNA Covid19 vaccine BNT162b2 sales revenue in the second quarter was nearly $7.9 billion, bringing Pfizer a combined revenue of more than $11.3 billion in the first half. Pfizer expects its Covid19 vaccine to generate revenues of $33.5 billion in 2021, while Moderna’s Covid19 vaccine generated second-quarter revenues of about $4 billion and first-half sales of about $5.93 billion.
In addition to the Kexin vaccine, the sales revenue of other domestic vaccines is also very impressive, even surpassing the Covid19 vaccine sales revenue of many international pharmaceutical giants.
Affected by safety and virus variation factors, Johnson & Johnson’s Covid19 vaccine sales grew slowly in the second quarter, with first-half sales revenue of $264 million. AstraZeneca’s Covid19 vaccine sales revenue in the first half of the year was $1.17 billion.
As for Concierge Bio-B (06185) vaccine’s sales revenue in the first half was about 2.061 billion yuan. It achieved a net profit of about 937 million yuan, turning a loss into a profit, with the main reason for the growth being the sales of the Covid19 vaccine. Jiffy Bio’s earnings report showed that the revenue income of its subsidiary Longcoma was 5.313 billion yuan, estimated to be mainly contributed by the recombinant protein Covid19 vaccine.
China tops the world in vaccine exports.
According to the latest report of the National Health and Wellness Commission, as of August 31, a total of 2.05 billion doses of the Covid19 vaccine were reported in China. And according to Zeng Yixin, deputy director of the National Health and Wellness Commission, previously revealed that a total of seven vaccines have been granted emergency use or conditionally listed in China, and 21 vaccine vaccines have entered the clinical trial phase.
With the first phase of the domestic vaccination program nearing its end, how much market space is left for the Covid19 vaccine that has not yet been approved for marketing?
On August 27th, Tibet Pharmaceutical announced that it would give up the exclusive global commercialization rights of the S microbial mRNA Covid19 vaccine and tuberculosis vaccine. The loss of the “Covid19 vaccine concept” aura caused Tibet Pharmaceutical to drop for two days in a row, with market value evaporating close to 1.4 billion yuan.
Yu Li, former head of FDA vaccine review and chairman of Sichuan Anke Kang Biomedical Co., Ltd., said in an interview with Time Finance that it is difficult to get emergency authorization to use the Covid19 vaccine in China. Most unlisted Covid19 vaccines have to be selected for listing and approval, but the Covid19 epidemic is not yet over. There are recurring epidemics in China from time to time, so the demand for vaccination will always exist, and the subsequent Covid19 vaccine can be considered for this aspect of the market.
On the other hand, a pharmaceutical industry analyst told Time Finance, “The domestic market is already minimal, but the Covid19 vaccine looks at the global market.”
Our World in Data, on the other hand, shows that global vaccination for Covid19 reached 5.29 billion doses, and about 39.4% of the world’s population received at least one dose of the Covid19 vaccine. Still, only 1.7% of people have received at least one dose of the Covid19 vaccine in low-income countries.
The above pharmaceutical industry analyst pointed out that the Covid19 vaccine going abroad is a successful attempt to promote the internationalization of domestic vaccines. Since most Covid19 vaccine clinical trials are conducted abroad, at least the countries where the trials are conducted will pay more attention to the Covid19 vaccine, so the export of the Covid19 vaccine is not a big problem.
For example, the Phase 3 clinical trial of the Coxin vaccine was conducted in Brazil, one of the first countries to approve the Coxin vaccine for emergency use.
According to the Global Covid19 Vaccine Application Landscape Report released by the Boao Forum for Asia, China has provided more than 500 million doses of vaccines and stockpiles to more than 100 international and international organizations, equivalent to one-sixth of the total global production of Covid19 vaccines. As of May, China’s vaccine exports were 227% of Europe’s vaccine exports and 84 times that of the U.S. vaccine exports.
Everbright Securities expressed bullishness on the incremental space brought by the export market of the Covid19 vaccine. The total export value of human vaccines in China from January to July was 48.38 billion yuan. The export value reached 15.89 billion yuan in a single month in July, while the export value of vaccines in China in 2020 was only 1.88 billion yuan. Some data predict that China’s Covid19 vaccine exports will reach at least 2 billion doses this year. If the export price is calculated at 70-80 yuan per dose, the annual export value of the Covid19 vaccine alone is expected to reach 140-160 billion yuan in 2021.